Determining the estimated machine time and efficiency of equipment at an oil and gas enterprise under conditions of information uncertainty

One of the main conditions for long-term forecasting of equipment requirements is to ensure the maximum level of equipment utilization, which characterizes production efficiency. In line with this condition, production in drilling departments must be organized to achieve an optimal volume that maximizes equipment productivity. In other words, it is necessary to determine the functional relationship between changes in the amount of equipment involved in the production process and its productivity. Following this, it is necessary to determine the optimal amount of equipment for the enterprise to maximize its productivity. The primary goal is to identify the negative and positive consequences of changes in the production scale. This article examines the solution to the above issues using the example of SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic). To adequately address this problem, a procedure for determining the estimated machine time for each drilling equipment at the enterprise level is proposed, using the “Annual drilling calendar balance” report from the SOCAR enterprise, Azerbaijan. It is known that as the drilling depth of a well increases, so do the labor costs associated with drilling. To solve this problem, the research examines the functional dependency of the amount of drilling equipment on its productivity. This study led to the development of a mathematical-statistical model to predict productive time based on drilling depth. The scientific innovations proposed in this article are presented with calculations, based on the example of the SOCAR drilling enterprise, offering practical insights. The results of the study can be applied when justifying production plans and forecasting future equipment and spare parts requirements for drilling enterprises.