A Security Posture Assessment of Industrial Control Systems Based on Evidential Reasoning and Belief Rule Base

With the rapid advancements in information technology and industrialization, the sustainability of industrial production has garnered significant attention. Industrial control systems (ICS), which encompass various facets of industrial production, are deeply integrated with the Internet, resulting in enhanced efficiency and quality. However, this integration also introduces challenges to the continuous operation of industrial processes. This paper presents a novel security assessment model for ICS, which is based on evidence-based reasoning and a library of belief rules. The model consolidates diverse information within ICS, enhancing the accuracy of assessments while addressing challenges such as uncertainty in ICS data. The proposed model employs evidential reasoning (ER) to fuse various influencing factors and derive security assessment values. Subsequently, a belief rule base is used to construct an assessment framework, grounded in expert-defined initial parameters. To mitigate the potential unreliability of expert knowledge, the chaotic mapping adaptive whale optimization algorithm is incorporated to enhance the model's accuracy in assessing the security posture of industrial control networks. Finally, the model's effectiveness in security assessment was validated through experimental results. Comparative analysis with other assessment models demonstrates that the proposed model exhibits superior performance in ICS security assessment.