Study on the Evolution of Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Carbon Emissions from Land Use in a River Basin

Land-use change significantly contributes to carbon emission. Analyzing this relationship fosters exploration of low-carbon, efficient land-use patterns at regional levels. Using ArcGIS 10.5 and the PLUS model, this study investigated land transfer trends across six counties and one district in the Malian River Basin between 2000 and 2020. It quantified carbon emissions from land use and performed spatial distribution analysis using land-use and socio-economic data. The study demonstrates the following: (1) Between 2010 and 2020, significant land-use changes occurred in the Malian River Basin with 72,919.49 km2 of land undergoing transformation. Notably, the farmland-to-forest and grassland conversion project in Qingyang City was a major factor contributing to the shift from arable land to forest and grassland. (2) Natural factors influencing land conversion in the Loess Plateau region primarily include precipitation and elevation. Conversely, social factors such as population density, road networks, and local government establishments in districts and counties are pivotal in driving land-use changes within the Malian River Basin. (3) Carbon emissions vary significantly among different land-use types, with building land, cropland, unutilized land, watershed, grassland, and forest land showing descending emissions. The rapid expansion of building land notably increases carbon emissions in the study region, while forest land, a significant carbon sink, absorbs approximately 88% of total carbon emissions. (4) Districts and counties in the study area exhibit varying levels of carbon emissions, with Ning County, Xifeng District, Huan County, Qingcheng County, Zhengning County, Heshui County, and Huachi County listed in descending order. Regions with higher carbon emissions typically host abundant energy resources and significant energy production and consumption activities. Variations in carbon emission levels are largely influenced by resource availability and development priorities. Variations in resource levels and developmental focus are pivotal in explaining differences in carbon emission levels. Thus, it is crucial to explore the dynamic interplay between land-use carbon emission efficiency and land evolution in the Malian River Basin. This research will support ecological management and sustainable economic development in the Yellow River Basin, while also contributing to the achievement of the “double carbon” goals.