Construction of Long-Term Grid-Scale Decoupling Model: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Against the backdrop of rapid global economic development, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, a pivotal economic hub and environmentally sensitive area in China, faces significant challenges in sustaining its landscape ecosystem. Given the region’s strategic importance and vulnerability to environmental pressures, this study investigated the intricate relationships between landscape ecological risk, urban expansion, and economic growth (EG) in the BTH region. Utilizing the landscape as the focal point, we constructed a decoupling model at the grid scale to explore the decoupling relationship between the landscape ecological risk index (ERI), construction area growth (CAG), and EG. The results showed that (1) distinct stages and regional disparities were observed in the trends of ERI, CAG, and EG within the BTH region. The hot and cold spot patterns for these factors did not align consistently. (2) From 1995 to 2019, the coupling relationship between ERI, CAG, and EG in the BTH region underwent a fluctuating transition, initially moving from an undesirable state to an ideal state, and subsequently reverting to an undesirable state. Although the overall trends in these relationships showed some convergence, there were notable spatial distribution differences. (3) The spatial heterogeneity of the two decoupling relationships in the BTH region was relatively poor. Further analysis revealed that the evolution of these decoupling relationships was closely intertwined with regional policy shifts and adjustments.