Forecast, analytical and trend analysis of the development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia in the main agri-food markets as an area of state strategic guidelines

Abstract The modern structure of the Russian agro-industrial complex has the properties of consolidation, expansion and prevalence of agricultural organizations and agricultural holdings, as evidenced by the factor of their provision for about two-thirds of the total agricultural production. This circumstance states the growing dominance of large agricultural business and the progressive evolution of the agricultural sector, as well as the reduction in the importance of individual farms of the population. In the course of the study, the current state of development of the agro-industrial complex of Russia is considered, a forecast, analytical and trend analysis of the development of the domestic agro-industrial complex is carried out through the prism of the fundamental agri-food markets and the contours of the subsequent progress in the development of the agricultural sector in the context of the evolving restructuring of the social, economic and political situation are determined. The novelty of the research lies in the presentation of forecast estimates and trends in the development of the main agri-food markets of the Russian agro-industrial complex, which determine the presumptive transformation of the agrarian mechanism of Russia in the medium and long term: destabilization of international political and trade-economic cooperation, intensification of economic restrictive measures, as well as fundamentally new state priorities. The agricultural sector of the economy tends to react extremely sharply to the current situation in recent years, manifested in unstable international economic relations and foreign policy crises, which directly negatively affects the conditions for the functioning of the agricultural business. The presented forecast scenario for the development of agri-food markets will contribute to the formation of directions for state strategic management, planning and regulation of the agro-industrial complex for the medium and long term.