Estimating the effect of lung cancer screening on interventional pulmonology procedures in Italy

Limited data concerning interventional procedures following positive lung cancer screening (LCS) are available. Our aim was to estimate the number of interventional pulmonology (IP) procedures in Italy consequent to the application of low dose CT-scan (LDCT) national LCS programs. In this population-based epidemiological simulation study, we collected data to estimate the Italian population eligible for LCS according to the 4-IN-THE-LUNG-RUN entry criteria and available literature data on screening positivity, adherence-to-follow-up and total performed procedures (bronchoscopy, thoracoscopy and percutaneous biopsy). We performed a statistical analysis to apply these rates to the eligible population, to estimate the amount of procedures at various initial participation rates. We calculated the eligible Italian population (N=4.934.959). Considering a baseline participation rate ranging from 5% to 25%, the expected number of IP procedures and bronchoscopies deriving from LDCT screening in Italy in 3 consecutive years was estimated to span from 28.385 to 147.678 and from 13.392 to 66.959, respectively (Fig. 1). To date, the annual number of IP procedures conducted in Italy is unknown, precluding an estimation of the IP increase rate with LCS. However, our result suggests the need for strengthening IP centers on a national level to stand a potential sharp increase in procedures following the introduction of LCS. <fig><object-id>erj;64/suppl_68/PA1638/F1</object-id><object-id>F1</object-id><object-id>F1</object-id><graphic></graphic></fig>