Prevention of progression in early fibrosing interstitial lung disease patients: Using economic modelling to inform evidence generation.

<bold>Introduction:</bold> Patients with fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (F-ILDs) are at risk of developing progressive pulmonary fibrosis, associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Early intervention in high-risk F-ILD patients could prevent or delay the onset of complications. <bold>Aims:</bold> To estimate the costs (United Kingdom) and benefits of a hypothetical intervention in patients with early F-ILD at high risk of progression. <bold>Methods:</bold> A health economic model was developed to determine rates of progression and associated costs and outcomes. Two early F-ILD patient risk groups were selected: Group 1; incidental diagnosis and group 2; familial history of ILD and an additional ILD risk factor (e.g., connective tissue disease). It was assumed that a hypothetical intervention would prevent or delay progression in high-risk patients relative to standard of care (20% and 60% of patients in groups 1 and 2, respectively). <bold>Results:</bold> Early effective intervention could lead to an improvement in survival and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and a reduction in lung transplants (Table 1). This would lead to a reduction in costs, with fewer patients progressing to more costly health states. The risk and rate of progression and the efficacy of an early intervention have the greatest impact on the results. <bold>Conclusions:</bold> Identifying and treating patients with early F-ILDs at high risk of progression may provide clinical, patient-related, and economic benefits. Future evidence generation is needed to understand risk and speed of progression. Table 1 <table-wrap><object-id>erj;64/suppl_68/PA2434/TB1</object-id><object-id>T1</object-id><object-id>TB1</object-id><table><colgroup><col></col><col></col><col></col><col></col></colgroup><tbody><tr><td></td><td>Increase in life years (%)</td><td>Increase in HRQoL (%)</td><td>Reduction in lung transplants (%)</td></tr><tr><td>Group 1</td><td>11</td><td>13</td><td>6</td></tr><tr><td>Group 2</td><td>45</td><td>49</td><td>37</td></tr></tbody></table></table-wrap>