A dynamic modelling approach to explore zero emission building stock opportunities towards 2050 – Case study of a university campus

• Building energy simulation models are integrated to dynamic material flow analysis to model future building stock energy demand. • Investigation on building stock energy demand under different renovation scenarios is performed. • Energy saving potentials are highly dependent on the construction period of the buildings. • Combining envelope renovation and operation improvements showed the highest savings. • Advanced renovation and extensive use of heat pumps are the most promising strategy for reducing energy demand of the area. The building sector has a significant influence on energy use and environmental impact. When observing a university campus, reduction of energy use is a complex issue due to the variety of building types, usage, building construction age, and different implementation of improvement measures. To investigate how energy efficiency measures on a single building may influence the entire campus, a combination of building energy simulation and a scenario-based aggregation method using dynamic material flow analysis principles was implemented. This study investigated possible energy efficiency measures at a university campus in Trondheim, Norway. Scenario analysis was used to identify the most critical factors for future development and to evaluate to what extent the campus might develop towards a net zero-emission campus during the period 2017–2050. Four scenarios were introduced including two aspects: renovation of the existing building stock and changes in campus energy supply systems. The results on energy efficiency packages highlighted that saving potentials were highly dependent on the construction period of the buildings. The package combining envelope renovation and operation improvements showed the highest savings. The findings indicated that advanced renovation, including extensive use of heat pumps, might be the most promising strategy for reducing energy demand by 26 %.