Do public-private partnerships (PPPs) promote the sustainable development of infrastructure (SDI)? Evidence from China

Purpose To address challenges such as inadequate funding and inefficiency in public infrastructure construction, PPPs have gained significant global traction. This study aims to comprehensively assess the impacts and mechanisms of PPPs on the SDI and to provide rational policy recommendations based on the findings. Design/methodology/approach We collated a dataset from 30 Chinese provinces covering the years 2005–2020 as our research sample. The study’s hypotheses are tested using a double fixed-effects model, a chained mediated-effects model and a multidimensional heterogeneity analysis. Findings Our findings indicate that PPPs have a facilitating effect on SDI in general. This boost usually lags behind policy implementation and is cyclical in the time dimension. In the spatial dimension, PPPs contribute significantly to SDI in the eastern and western regions, but not in the central region. From the perspective of the dynamics of economic, social and industrial development, PPPs in economically backward areas are difficult to promote SDI, promote it the most in economically medium regions and are slightly less in economically developed regions than in medium regions. This promotion effect has an inverted U-shaped relationship with social development and diminishes with industrial structure upgrading. Finally, due to the negative relationship between PPPs and social development and between social development and SDI, PPPs are shown to contribute to SDI and are identified as critical paths. However, PPPs suppress SDI by inhibiting economic and industrial development. Originality/value This study makes three novel contributions to the existing body of knowledge: (1) we innovatively introduce the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into the field of infrastructure research, offering fresh perspectives on SDI enhancement; (2) revealing the mechanisms by which PPPs affect SDI through the three dimensions of economic, social and industrial development enabling policymakers to better understand and optimize resource allocation and improve planning, design and management of PPP projects for sustainable infrastructure and (3) we assess the spatiotemporal variances of PPPs’ effects on SDI and the diversity across regions at different social, economic and industrial structures developmental stages, offering critical insights to global decision-makers to devise tailored policy measures.