An experimental approach to estimating the current oil recovery coefficient using a complex of stochastic and numerical computer modeling methods

This paper presents an experimental study devoted to determining the prospects for the integrated application of stochastic and numerical computer modeling methods to solve one of the fundamental problems of field development – assessing current oil recovery based on various parameters that reflect the properties of productive formations and their saturating fluids. The object of the study was the long-term deposits of the Volga–Ural oil and gas province. As part of the initial stage, a discriminant analysis was carried out according to the tectonic-stratigraphic criterion, as a result of which three clusters of homogeneous objects were formed based on seventeen parameters. When interpreting the distribution of deposits in the axes of canonical discriminant functions, the unstable parameter of the total thickness of the reservoir was replaced by one of the variable indicators selected using the digital implementation of the uniform search method and its interpretation using known approaches. In order to reduce the influence factor of the uncertainty zone that arises when considering objects in the axes of canonical discriminant functions, the method of constructing structured grids was used. The reliability and scope of the obtained dependence were established using the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno optimization algorithm. The conclusion is made about the possibility of using the developed scientific and methodological approach to forecasting oil recovery at different values of the well grid density. Keywords: oil recovery coefficient; modeling of nonlinear systems; deposits of the Volga-Ural oil and gas province; tectonic and stratigraphic confinement of objects; stochastic and numerical methods of computer analysis and data processing; development of oil fields, geological and field parameters.