Seeing the Futures: Evaluating the Application of Structured Analytic Technique Alternative Futures Analysis

The Structured Analytic Technique (SAT) Alternative Futures Analysis (AFA) is an imaginative thinking technique used by intelligence analysts in circumstances of uncertainty to generate and explore a range of potential future states. Recent literature on SATs has been critical of their use because of an absence of robust evidence of their value. This research observed focus groups which applied AFA to a specific case study and evaluated their outputs. The results suggest AFA can be used less prescriptively than some of the literature sets out in terms of group size and timeframe, while also supporting the recommended use of a facilitator. An understanding of the purpose of AFA as an imaginative thinking technique, intended to explore future possibilities, is vital in applying the technique, evaluating it, and communicating the results. The potential for mismatch between the criteria suggested to analyse SATs in general and the intent of AFA as a technique, undervalues the technique. A key consideration in evaluating AFA, is the need to ensure the technique is applied as intended. Further, this research identifies that the learning context may influence the application of AFA.