Heated Environment, Armed People: Between “Climate Change Conflict” and “Fragility Conflict” in the Sahel

The Sahel is a classic example of a region inundated by climate change and conflicts. The region is an ecological hotspot that is on the brink of collapse, as countries in the area are trapped in a vicious cycle of conflict, resource scarcity, and environmental threats, which increase the chances of political instability and civil unrest. Noting that there is a divergent scholarly viewpoint on the relationship between climate change and conflict, this study evaluates the climate change-conflict thesis vis-à-vis the fragility-conflict thesis. It argues that armed conflicts in the Sahel are not exclusively attributable to climate change; rather, other conventional drivers exacerbate the impact of climate change on conflicts. These conventional drivers, framed as fragility indices, play a more significant role in conflict escalation in the Sahel. To this end, this study provides a holistic perspective on conflict dynamics and underscores the intricate interplay between fragility and conflict proliferation. This study adopts a qualitative approach and analyzes secondary data, particularly journal articles, reports, briefs, and developmental indices. The findings show that conditions symptomatic of a fragile state increase the incidence and proliferation of armed conflict in the region. Thus, conflict in the Sahel is a product of amplified pre-existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities and governance challenges.