The source characteristics and ground motion parameters measure with structural damages of Mw6.4, 2018 Hualien earthquake Taiwan from GPS data

On February 6, 2018, a moderate earthquake with a magnitude of ML6.2, known as the 0206 earthquake, struck Hualien in eastern Taiwan, resulting in significant destruction, 17 fatalities, and over 300 injuries. This research investigates the kinematic source model of the earthquake by inverting coseismic Global Positioning System (GPS) displacement recordings from the area surrounding the epicenter. The inverted source model indicates that most asperities above the hypocenter are minor, with large slips occurring at depths shallower than 10 km, which contributed to the severe damage in Hualien City. Additionally, we calculated the Coulomb stress changes at depths ranging from 6 km to 14 km, revealing that most aftershocks within a month occurred within a Coulomb stress range of >0.1 bar, extending from shallow to deep and from southwest to northeast of the epicenter. Notably, despite high Coulomb stress, few aftershocks were generated in the western part of the epicenter, suggesting a seismic gap that may lead to a more significant earthquake in the future. Two years later, two moderate earthquakes (ML=5) occurred at depths of 17.53 and 12.1 km in the region where Coulomb stress had increased, validating our predictions. Furthermore, by applying the derived seismic source model and a stochastic semi-empirical technique to assess five parameters related to building damage, we found that all damaged buildings were within the danger alert level, with some located along the Meilun Fault, indicating that the destruction was due to the combined effects of the 0206 earthquake and the fault's induced movement.