Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

Abstract Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.

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Journal
Earth and Space Science
Published
2024-11-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ea003278
Citations
17
Primary Topic
Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
8.17

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Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

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Prospects of Predicting the Polar Motion Based on the Results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

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article en
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Abstract

Abstract Growing interest in Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) resulted in various approaches to the EOP prediction algorithms, as well as in the exploitation of distinct input data, including the observed EOP values from various operational data centers and modeled effective angular momentum functions. Considering these developments and recently emerged new methodologies, the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) was pursued in 2021–2022. The campaign was led by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk in cooperation with Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service. This paper provides the analysis and evaluation of the polar motion predictions submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC with the prediction horizons between 10 and 30 days. Our analysis shows that predictions are highly reliable with only a few occasional discrepancies identified in the submitted files. We demonstrate the accuracy of EOP predictions by (a) calculating the mean absolute error relative to polar motion observations from September 2021 through December 2022 and (b) assessing the stability of the predictions in time. The analysis shows unequal results for the x and y components of polar motion (PMx and PMy, respectively). Predictions of PMy are usually more accurate and have a smaller spread across all submitted files when compared to PMx. We present an analysis of similarity between the participants to indicate what methods and input data give comparable output. We also prepared the ranking of prediction methods for polar motion summarizing the achievements of the campaign.

Earth and Space ScienceVol. 11(11)
Warsaw University of Technology (PL), Shandong University of Technology (CN), Centrum Badań Kosmicznych (PL), Jagiellonian University (PL), University of Alicante (ES), European Space Operations Centre (DE), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (US), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences (PL), Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (CN), ETH Zurich (CH), National Time Service Center (CN), National Space Science Center (CN), Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (DE), Systèmes de Référence Temps-Espace (FR), GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences (DE), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Beijing Aerospace Flight Control Center (CN), Technische Universität Berlin (DE), AGH University of Krakow (PL)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Generalitat Valenciana, Narodowe Centrum Nauki, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
8.17
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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