Exploring the Nexus Between Fertility Rates and Geopolitical Risk with Intelligence Methods: A Multifaceted Analysis

Background/Objectives: This paper presents an analysis of birth rate statistics, specifically focusing on recorded births in Scotland. The main research objective focuses on investigating the influence of geopolitical concerns on birth rate forecasts. Specifically, we examine whether individuals may choose to postpone or abstain from having children during times of conflict or political turmoil due to concerns about personal safety, the welfare of their children, or uncertainty about the future caused by geopolitical risks. Additionally, this study examines how disruptions to healthcare services, such as limited access to prenatal care and maternal health facilities, can affect birth outcomes and lead to changes in birth rates. Methods: To approach the research objective both machine learning algorithms and classical statistical procedures. Also, as part of the current analysis, the Geopolitical Risk Index has been applied as an extra factor to predict the birth rate. Results: The results of our study demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning in producing precise predictions in this field, while emphasizing the significant influence of geopolitical risk on comprehending the dynamics of birth rates in Scotland. Conclusions: This study examines the effectiveness of several machine learning regression models in accurately predicting the number of births in Scotland using data that is not included in the model training process. Findings show promising outcomes in predicting births, while geopolitical instability has been indicated as a substantial influence on birth rates and fertility rates.