Development of Particulate Matter Concentration Estimation Models for Road Sections Based on Micro-Data

With increasing global concerns related to global warming, air pollution, and environmental health, South Korea is actively implementing various particulate matter (PM) reduction policies to improve air quality. Accurate data analysis, including the investigation of weather phenomena, monitoring, and integrated prediction, is essential for effective PM reduction. However, the factors influencing the PM generated from domestic road sections have not yet been systematically analyzed, and currently, no predictive models utilize weather and traffic data. This study analyzed the correlations among factors influencing PM to develop models for estimating fine and coarse PM (PM2.5 and PM10, respectively) concentrations in road sections. Regression analysis models were used to assess the sensitivity of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations to the traffic volume, whereas machine learning-based models, including linear regression, convolutional neural networks, and random forest models, were constructed and compared. The random forest models outperformed the other models, with coefficients of determination of 0.74 and 0.71 and mean absolute errors of 5.78 and 9.60 for PM2.5 and PM10, respectively. These results indicate that the random forest model provides the most accurate PM concentration estimates for road sections. The practical applications of the developed models were considered to inform effective transportation policies aimed at reducing PM. The developed model has practical applications in the formulation of transportation policies aimed at reducing PM. In particular, the model will play an important role in data-driven policymaking for sustainable urban development and environmental protection. By analyzing the correlation between traffic volume and weather conditions, policymakers can formulate more effective and sustainable strategies for reducing air pollution.