Multi-Scale Supply and Demand Relationships of Ecosystem Services Under Multiple Scenarios and Ecological Zoning to Promote Sustainable Urban Ecological Development in Arid Regions of China

Predicting and analyzing the supply and demand relationship of ecosystem services provides theoretical support for the improvement of the ecological environment. This paper takes Bortala, a typical oasis city with a fragile ecological environment in the arid northwest region, as a case study. Based on the GMOP-PLUS-InVEST coupled model, it predicts the coupling coordination and matching degree of the supply and demand connection of ecosystem services such as habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), and soil erosion (SD) under four scenarios. The findings indicate that from 2020 to 2035, HQ, CS, and WY have basically achieved coupling coordination at both scales. However, there is a notable disparity in the supply and demand of water resource production and carbon emission production. To ensure the long-term balance of ecosystem service supply and demand (ESSD), the research area was ultimately divided into five ecological zones: ecological conservation zone, ecological agriculture zone, ecological moderate development zone, ecological improvement zone, and ecological protection zone. It could offer insights for guiding the sustainable growth of ecologically vulnerable zones in the future.