An Optimization Framework for Waste Treatment Center Site Selection Considering Nighttime Light Remote Sensing Data and Waste Production Fluctuations

As urbanization accelerates, the management of urban solid waste poses increasingly intricate challenges. Traditional urban metrics, such as GDP and per capita consumption rates, have become inadequate for accurately reflecting the realities of waste generation; moreover, the linear correlation between these metrics and waste production is progressively diminishing. Consequently, this study introduces a novel methodology leveraging nighttime light remote sensing data to enhance the precision of urban solid waste production forecasts. By processing remote sensing data to mitigate noise and integrating it with conventional urban datasets, an innovative index system and predictive model were developed. Using Beijing as a case study, the gradient boosting regression algorithm yielded a prediction accuracy of 92%. Furthermore, in light of the substantial costs associated with waste recovery route planning and site selection for treatment facilities, this research further devised a location and distribution framework for waste treatment centers based on high-precision predictions of waste production while employing multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) alongside the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) for optimization. Distinct from prior studies, this study suggests that service point waste quantities are not fixed values but rather adhere to a normal distribution within specified ranges and thus provides a more realistic simulation of fluctuations in waste production while enhancing both the robustness and predictive accuracy of the model. In conclusion, by incorporating nighttime light remote sensing data along with advanced machine learning techniques, this study markedly improves forecasting accuracy for waste production while offering effective optimization strategies for site selection and recovery route planning—thereby establishing a robust data foundation aimed at refining urban solid waste management systems.