Mitigating an Epidemic on a Geographic Network Using Vaccination

We consider a mathematical model describing the propagation of an epidemic on a geographical network. The size of the outbreak is governed by the initial growth rate of the disease given by the maximal eigenvalue of the epidemic matrix formed by the susceptibles and the graph Laplacian representing the mobility. We use matrix perturbation theory to analyze the epidemic matrix and define a vaccination strategy, assuming vaccination reduces the susceptibles. When mobility and the local disease dynamics have similar time scales, it is most efficient to vaccinate the whole network because the disease grows uniformly. However, if only a few vertices can be vaccinated, then we show that it is most efficient to vaccinate along an eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the Laplacian. We illustrate these results by calculations on a seven-vertex graph and a realistic example of the French rail network. When mobility is slower than the local disease dynamics, the epidemic grows on the vertex with largest number of susceptibles. The epidemic growth rate is more reduced when vaccinating a larger degree vertex; it also depends on the neighboring vertices. This study and its conclusions provide guidelines for the planning of a vaccination campaign on a network at the onset of an epidemic.