Military power concentration, 2017–2023: did the COVID-19 pandemic matter?

This rapid communication examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the international military system, utilizing variations in systemic power concentration as a metric. Power is conceptualized in terms of military capabilities and quantified through two indicators: military expenditure and military personnel. The methodology for this quantification parallels that of the Composite Indicator of National Capability, developed by the Correlates of War Project. Modelski’s approach is employed to calculate systemic power concentration, while Brecke’s criteria are utilized to ascertain the system’s polar structure—polarity—over the period from 2017 to 2023. The findings indicate that the international military system maintained a structurally multipolar configuration, with China, India, and the United States serving as principal power centers. A slight decrease in the value of concentration occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic years, but no significant post-pandemic alterations in the structure of the international military system were observed. Consequently, this study concludes that COVID-19 has had minimal, if any, effect on the global concentration of power.