REGIONÁLNE KLIMATICKÉ SCENÁRE FREKVENCIE VÝSKYTU DNÍ SO ZRÁŽKAMI NA SLOVENSKU

We present scenarios of how frequency of days with precipitation may change over the territory of Slovakia by 2050 and 2080 in the article. Climatic scenarios were created from three regional climate models EURO-CORDEX for the pessimistic emission scenario RCP8.5. We analysed the occurrence of the number of precipitation days for class intervals: 5 – 9.9 mm, 10 – 19.9 mm, 20 – 29.9 mm, 30 – 39.9 mm, as well as for open intervals ≥ 5 mm, ≥ 10 mm, ≥ 20 mm, ≥ 30 mm, and ≥ 40 mm. To correct systematic errors in climate models, we used data (daily precipitation totals) from the national network of rain gauges. The RCM models were corrected in two steps: first in terms of excessive occurrence of so-called “drizzle days”, and then in terms of systematic underestimation of daily sums across the entire distribution function (bias correction). The occurrence of days with daily rainfall exceeding 40 mm for the horizons of 2050 and 2080 is presented in the form of maps. As our analyses revealed, the annual frequency of days with daily rainfall exceeding 40 mm is expected to increase by approximately 20% by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 60% by the end of the century compared to the present. The paper also includes tables with relative changes and absolute frequencies of wet days for 75 selected locations in Slovakia.