The Prohibition of Forestation on Cultivated Land in China: A Difference-in-Differences Model Analysis of the Effects of Cutting Down Trees on Farmland Transfer

The implementation of China’s stringent farmland protection policy has resulted in the compulsory removal of trees from farmland, which has significantly impacted farmers’ willingness to transfer their land. To explain the impact of cutting trees on farmers’ land transfer, this study conducted a two-way fixed-effect difference-in-differences (DID) model based on a survey of 163 households in Daxiapo Village in China during 2020–2023. The results show that cutting trees significantly promotes farmland transfer among farmers. Moreover, the promotion effect of cutting trees is more pronounced when transferring land in than it is when transferring land out. For land plots with poor accessibility and fertility, the effects of transferring land out are more significant than for plots that are fertile and conveniently located. As a result, the prohibition of forestation on farmland has increased the contiguity of some land plots and improved the spatial configuration of farmland, but land fragmentation is still prominent on land owned by large-scale farmers. Therefore, this paper proposes two optimization scenarios to address the issue of farmland fragmentation and compares the feasibility of these plans in the short and long term. This paper suggests that short-term policies prohibiting forestation can trigger abrupt changes in farmland transfer patterns and drive further changes in the spatial configuration of farmland. Though some large-scale farming households were established through land transfer, the problem of plot fragmentation must be solved. This article presents several possible scenarios to aid in the design of more systematic policy systems to balance the protection of cultivated land, farmers’ willingness, and the spatial contiguity of cultivated land.