County-Level Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms of Carbon Emissions in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Encouraging cities to take the lead in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality holds significant global implications for addressing climate change. However, existing studies primarily focus on the urban scale, lacking more comprehensive county-level analyses, which hampers the effective implementation of differentiated carbon mitigation policies. Therefore, this study focused on the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in China, adopting nighttime light data and socio-economic spatial data to estimate carbon emissions at the county level. Furthermore, trend analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and Geodetector were adopted to elucidate the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of county-level carbon emissions. Carbon emissions were predominantly concentrated in the counties on the eastern bank of the Pearl River Estuary. Since 2010, there has been a deceleration in the growth rate of carbon emissions in the region around the Pearl River Estuary, with some counties exhibiting declining trends. Throughout the study period, construction land expansion consistently emerged as a predominant factor driving carbon emission growth. Additionally, foreign direct investment, urbanization, and fixed asset investment each significantly contributed to the increased carbon emissions during different development periods.