Weeks After the Raid: The Immediate and Sustained Changes in Student Attendance Rates Following Immigration Arrests

Recent research has shown the ways in which immigration enforcement actions can affect educational outcomes for all students, regardless of their immigrant status. One consequence of particular concern is student absenteeism, a non-academic indicator used by 37 states to evaluate school success under the Every Student Succeeds Act. However, previous research has faced data limitations on the measure of immigration enforcement and relies on aggregated measures of educational outcomes. Using weekly attendance rates of a school district as well as unique data collection on immigration arrests between 2014 and 2018, this study used single and comparative interrupted time series analyses to quantify the immediate and sustained impacts of immigration arrests on student attendance. Findings suggest that incidents involving a greater number of immigration arrests correspond to immediate spikes in student absenteeism, as high as 11% points for certain student demographics. Additionally, the district’s attendance rate sustained a cumulative 2%-point decline following two incidents involving the greatest number of arrests. Implications for policymakers and educators are discussed.