Groundwater Model for Karst and Pelitic Aquifer Systems from a Semi-Arid Region Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Vieira River Watershed, Brazil

Water scarcity is a global issue, especially in semi-arid and arid regions where precipitation is irregularly distributed over time and space. Predicting groundwater flow in heterogeneous karst terrains, which are essential water sources, presents a significant challenge. This article integrates geology, hydrology, and water monitoring to develop a pioneering conceptual and numerical model of groundwater flow in the Montes Claros Region (Vieira River Watershed, Brazil). This model was evaluated under various climate change scenarios, considering changes in rainfall, groundwater consumption, and population growth over the current century. The results indicate that a decline in water table levels is inevitable, primarily driven by population growth and high pumping rates rather than rainfall fluctuations. This underscores the urgent need for improved monitoring, model upgrading, and more importantly, targeted water resource management for Montes Claros.