Assessing Non-linear Influences of Urban Layout on Driving Travel Distance: A Mumbai Case Study

Introduction This study investigates the impact of built environment factors on travel behavior in Mumbai, India, focusing on the non-linear effects on driving distances. The rapid urbanization and complex urban of Mumbai constitute present challenges for sustainable transportation, necessitating a deeper understanding of how urban planning influences travel behavior. While demographic factors have often been highlighted in travel studies, this research prioritizes the role of built environment factors. Materials and Methods The study utilized Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) to analyze household travel survey data from Mumbai, capturing the non-linear relationships between built environment variables and driving distances. Partial dependence plots were used to visualize these effects, and the relative importance of each variable was assessed to identify key determinants of travel behavior. Results The analysis identified trip time as the most influential factor in determining driving distances, followed by built environment characteristics, such as proximity to commercial areas and intersection density. Socio-demographic factors were found to have a comparatively low impact. Non-linear relationships were observed, such as the stabilization of driving distances beyond certain thresholds of block density and proximity to bus stops. Discussion The findings challenge the traditional emphasis on demographic factors in explaining travel behavior, highlighting the significant role of urban form. The study reveals that specific built environment factors, such as accessibility and connectivity, play a crucial role in shaping driving behavior in a rapidly urbanizing city like Mumbai. These results suggest that urban planning strategies should prioritize these factors to reduce car dependency. Conclusion This study underscores the importance of the built environment in influencing travel behavior in Mumbai, particularly in reducing driving distances. The insights gained offer valuable guidance for urban planners and policymakers aiming to promote sustainable mobility in rapidly developing cities. Further research is recommended to validate and expand upon these findings in other urban contexts.