To ride-hail or not to ride-hail? Complementarity and competition between public transit and transportation network companies through the lens of app data

Abstract Transportation Network Company (TNC) services have become a prominent factor in urban transportation in recent years, and there is an ongoing debate regarding their relationship with public transit. While many argue that TNCs draw passengers away from public transportation, others believe the two modes complement each other. However, due to the inadequate sample size of rider surveys as primary data sources, our understanding of how riders choose between these two modalities remains limited. This study uses nine months of trip planning data generated by the Transit App, which captures how travelers engage with multiple options in real time, including TNC and public transit services. We extract measures from Transit describing the travel options and the habits of each individual user for sessions in which the user “tapped” on one of these two modes, indicating consideration of it as an option. Machine learning models predict the likelihood of a rider tapping TNC based on features of the available public transit options and other contextual factors (e.g., time of day, weather conditions). The models find that these taps are driven by factors that highlight the convenience of TNC, such as the waiting time, walking distance, and the number of transfers for public transportation trips. We also find that the majority of TNC trips tapped by app users combine the two modes when using the Transit App, with TNC acting as a connection to or from public transit. These results provide detailed additional evidence for current arguments for both competition and complementarity between TNC and public transit from a population that uses an app to navigate public transit.