Dynamic Wood Consumption Forecast in Germany from 2020 to 2050

Against the backdrop of pressing environmental challenges such as global warming, nations are intensifying efforts to reduce energy consumption and emissions in the future. The carbon-neutral attribute of wood is being reassessed, signaling a potential shift in consumption patterns. This study aims to forecast wood consumption in Germany from 2020 to 2050 and evaluate the ability of domestic forests to meet demand. Employing a material flow analysis approach and considering recent data alongside Germany’s Climate Action 2050 goals, consumption projections were made for sectors such as building, paper, energy, furniture, and packaging. Results indicate a significant surge in wood consumption, particularly in the scenario with a high residential renovation rate, necessitating substantial wood imports to fulfill demand. Energy and building emerge as pivotal sectors for reducing wood consumption. This research fills a gap in prospective prediction on wood consumption, which is essential for aligning strategies with environmental objectives.