Individual return patterns of spawning flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) to a desert river tributary

Tributaries provide temporal and spatial habitat heterogeneity in river networks that can be critical for parts of the life history of a species. Tributary fidelity can benefit individual fish undergoing spawning migrations by reducing time and energy spent exploring new areas and leveraging previous experience, but anthropogenic activities that fragment or degrade these systems can eliminate those benefits. We used multistate models based on passive integrated transponder (PIT) detection data from 2013 to 2023 to estimate the proportion of flannelmouth suckers (Catostomus latipinnis) migrating to a tributary, McElmo Creek, from the mainstem San Juan River for spawning. Survival varied among years and among states. The top model for migration probability included sex, with males slightly more likely to migrate (0.93 vs 0.90), and the next model identified interannual variation in migration probability ranging from 0.875 to 0.999 across years, indicating high site fidelity. Individuals showed consistency in relative arrival timing across years, with the highest correlation generally during years with greater spring discharge and extended tributary residence time. Successful tributary spawning may be important for the maintenance of the mainstem San Juan River flannelmouth sucker population, but site fidelity may be maladaptive where tributaries are vulnerable to human alterations.