Export Spells and the Position of Global Value Chain: Evidence from China’s Industrial Firms

The international division of labor has entered the era of the global value chain (GVC) due to the continuous influence of the scientific and technological revolution. At the same time, sustainable development has taken center stage in the evolution of international trade, and the export spell is an important indicator to measure the sustainable development of export trade. Based on the China customs data, the Chinese industrial enterprises database and the Chinese input-output table from 2000 to 2012, this paper uses the survival analysis method to estimate the enterprises’ export spells and calculate their positions in the GVC through upstreamness. It then investigates the impact of export spells on the position changes of the GVC enterprises. According to the paper, export enterprises near the bottom of the GVC are more vulnerable to extinction. And the duration of enterprises’ export spells has a U-shaped relationship with their positions in the GVC, which means that enterprises will continue to move downstream of the GVC as duration increases, but positions will shift upstream if duration reaches the inflection point. The mechanism test shows that the quality of export products is an important channel through which the duration of enterprises’ export spells influences their GVC positions.