Benefits and Vulnerabilities of the Free Trade Agreement for the EAEU Countries and China

Aim . Objective is to formulate the position of the EAEU in the negotiations on the free trade area with China. Tasks. We determine the potential results of the creation of the China-EAEU free trade area for each country. Methods . The indices of complementarity and trade intensity were calculated, and the benefits to society from the abolition of customs tariffs were calculated using a partial equilibrium trade-policy simulation. Results. The study of supply and demand for excavators showed that the total benefit of consumers (the construction industry) from the abolition of customs duties only slightly exceeds the losses of producers and the government. Based on the complementarity assessment, it was found that the free trade agreement is more beneficial for China than for the EAEU countries — the structure of China’s exports better corresponds to the structure of imports of the EAEU countries. It was revealed that the exports of the EAEU countries to China are not diversified, and the main export goods face minimal tariffs — 0% for crude oil from Russia and Kazakhstan, 3% for potash fertilizers from Belarus, 0% for ores and concentrates of precious metals from Kyrgyzstan, 0% for copper ores and concentrates from Armenia. The EAEU countries may be interested in further liberalization of trade with China due to the intention to export frozen fish, corn, wheat and rice (Russia), tobacco (Kyrgyzstan and Armenia), meat and dairy products (Belarus), and cognac (Armenia). Conclusions . Reduction of duties on the specified goods may be the subject of a preliminary temporary agreement. A free trade zone may be created by finalizing the existing Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation between the EAEU and its Member States and the PRC. It is recommended that, in addition to including provisions on the abolition of customs duties, sections on trade in services, investments, and movement of individuals be included.