Can neotectonic faults influence soil air radon levels in the Upper Rhine Graben? An exploratory machine learning assessment

Radon (Rn) is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that poses a significant lung cancer risk. Subsurface fault zones can act as pathways for fluid and gas migration, potentially amplifying Rn accumulation. This study investigates the impact of fault zones on Rn concentrations within a 25 km² area in the Northern Upper Rhine Graben, Germany - a region with available detailed geophysical exploration data and active neotectonic faulting. We conducted 597 Rn soil air measurements along precisely located fault zones, integrating a comprehensive range of environmental parameters. Utilizing the advanced machine learning model eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) in conjunction with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, we dissected the influence of soil types, environmental factors, and proximity to fault zones on soil air Rn concentrations at a 1-meter depth. Our results reveal that clay-rich soils and cumulative 30-day precipitation are the primary drivers of elevated Rn levels. Proximity to fault zones also significantly influences Rn concentrations, though its impact is less pronounced than the factors mentioned above. Additionally, environmental factors such as wind speed, air pressure, and temperature exhibited lesser effects on Rn levels. The negligible influence of measuring devices and operating personnel increases confidence in data integrity in extensive environmental studies. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating XGBoost with SHAP values to identify and quantify key factors influencing Rn concentrations. By providing a robust framework for enhancing Rn prediction models through machine learning, our findings contribute to improved risk assessments and mitigation strategies, thereby advancing public health and environmental management.