Geographic Analysis of Four Social Safety Nets’ Responsiveness to the Pandemic Recession and Social Sustainability

The present study investigates the geographic distribution patterns of the responsiveness of four safety net programs during the significant economic downturn triggered by the 2020 pandemic: Unemployment Insurance, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Medicaid, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. An analysis of each state’s enrollment changes in these safety net programs from the pre-pandemic to the pandemic period relative to labor-market performance, using a responsiveness index, revealed which programs were most responsive to the pandemic recession in specific states or regions. Consistent with national findings, the present study suggests that Unemployment Insurance responded the most to the economic downturn of 2020, followed by the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, Medicaid, and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. Findings also show that Arizona and New Mexico responded highly across all four programs relative to labor-market performance. We used exploratory spatial data analysis to determine whether the spatial patterns of the responsiveness index identified in the study are statistically significant globally and locally within a given neighborhood structure. Our findings suggest that spatial distribution patterns are not random for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families at the global level. Moreover, statistically low-low clusters were found in different areas of these two programs: the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in northern states and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families in southern states. Our analyses of the four safety nets’ responsiveness to labor market performance are consistent with the underlying social sustainability principles, particularly livelihood security and social well-being. Our findings can help policymakers make data-driven and better-informed decisions to assist those facing financial hardship, paving the way for improved policies and new opportunities for prosperity.