The Impact Mechanism of the Low-Carbon Pilot Policy on Urban Carbon Emissions in China

To explore the impact mechanisms of China’s low-carbon pilot policies on urban carbon emissions, this paper employs the propensity-score-matched difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) methodology, in conjunction with a dynamic marginal effect analysis, to examine the mechanisms through which China’s low-carbon pilot policies, initiated in three phases at disparate points in time, influence urban carbon emissions. The analysis is based on urban panel data from 2009 to 2020. The case demonstrates that the low-carbon pilot policies have had a considerable positive impact on the reduction of urban carbon emissions. Improving the efficiency of energy use and promoting the transformation of the industrial structure towards modern services are pivotal to curbing the intensity of carbon emissions. While the impact on the secondary industry is not statistically significant, these policies do have a significant impact on the restructuring of the tertiary industry. Increasing the amount of carbon sink in urban green spaces likewise has no discernible impact on lowering carbon emissions. Consequently, it is recommended that low-carbon technological innovation be further strengthened, including industrial upgrading, energy consumption control, and renewable energy development. Through these strategies, not only can carbon emissions be effectively reduced, they can thereby facilitate the creation of an environmentally friendly and resilient low-carbon city.