Study on Development Pathways of Nuclear Energy for Energy System in China Using Message Model

Abstract Global climate change is a challenge to human society, and major countries around the world are taking a carbon-neutral pathway. China introduced the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in 2020, highlighting the criticality of reducing carbon emissions. Nuclear power emerges as an essential option for a stable electricity supply with extremely low carbon emissions. This work conducts research on the development pathway of nuclear energy based on the MESSAGE model. Taking Jiangsu province in China as an example to elaborate on the scale, and path of China’s nuclear energy development from the present to 2060. The model simplifies the representation of coal-fired power, nuclear power, and renewable sources in Jiangsu Province’s electricity system, considering constraints such as demand, generation capacity, regional characteristics for nuclear plant site selection, and carbon neutrality goals. The objective is to minimize costs while meeting electricity demand and other constraints to provide a comprehensive depiction of the nuclear energy landscape. The computational solution yields future activity levels, capacities, and additional capacities for different technologies. The research results indicate that the future development trajectory of nuclear energy will vary significantly under different scenarios. Against the backdrop of dual carbon goals, nuclear energy is poised to become a crucial component of the future energy system, holding a stable share of the electricity system. Coal-fired power will gradually phase out its dominant position, giving way to new energy plants as a primary component of the future energy system. This work proposes a quantitative tool that uses an optimization model to analyze the dynamic competition of nuclear energy technology. Through the analysis of model results, scientific planning for future nuclear energy development can be conducted, providing theoretical support for policy formulation and the planning of nuclear energy development paths.