CHANGEPOINTS DETECTION OF PANDEMIC WAVE IN REAL-TIME: APPLICATIONS TO THE TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread throughout the world. Most countries experienced the pandemic in multiple waves. The Richards model predicts when a pandemic will peak and end in a particular area. However, this model can only be used in the single-wave case. The research aims to identify a changepoint detection method capable of delineating pandemic wave boundaries, thus enabling the resolution of multiple wave cases using the Richards model. This article uses two methods to detect changepoints: the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) and the interpolation method. PELT method determines the changepoint based on changes in the statistical properties of the sequence of observations which can be in the form of differences in the mean or variance of each set of observations. In contrast, the linear interpolation method determines the changepoint based on the slope of a data pattern. The two methods complement each other, where the interpolation method is used to determine whether the pandemic is still in a single wave or has multiple waves, followed by determining wave boundaries using the PELT method. Richards model parameter estimation is carried out after the wave boundaries are obtained, and initial data is taken from the last wave using the PELT method. The prediction results show the peak of the pandemic in a particular region and when it will end, which can be used to inform medium-term strategies for the government to overcome the ongoing pandemic. This information helps prevent a resurgence of infections, which would negatively affect the COVID-19 mortality rate and the area's economic situation.