Book review: Who will rule South Africa? The demise of the ANC and the rise of a new democracy by Adriaan Basson and Qaanitah Hunter

This useful analysis of the current state of South Africa politics suggests four possible outcomes of the forthcoming election in May 2024.These are as follows: first, although the ANC holds on to its majority by winning just over 50% of popular support, it will emerge weakened, thus igniting the internal flames of rebellion against party leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa.Second, the ANC receives below 50% but more than 45% of the vote, propelling it into opposition with one or more smaller parties, which will thereby gain unprecedented political leverage.Third, its support plunges to just above or just below 40%, which because coalition with multiple smaller parties would be unsustainable and messy, might lead it into a potentially more stable coalition with the EFF; or, at a long shot, with the DA.Fourth, although highly unlikely, the DA-encouraged Multi-Party Coalition (or 'moonshot pact') performs so well electorally, that it unseats the ANC completely.'Whichever of the above scenarios plays out', argue the authors, the 2024 election will end the one-party grip on South Africa', plunging South Africa into a new era of uncertainty (p.198).The authors admit that that they are not sure whether this will be 'better or worse' for South Africa.This is rather at odds with their optimistic subtitling of their book as presaging 'the rise of a new democracy'.They do not say so explicitly, but it becomes evident that in their estimation, if South Africa is to embark on a less corruption-ridden and pro-growth and pro-democracy future, it will have to come about as the product of an ANC-DA coalition, whatever the difficulties this will encounter.The alternative they fear, especially if the ANC teams up with the EFF, is that the election will lead to South Africa sliding more deeply into the maw of 'kakistrocracy' ('government by the worst in society').Pre-election books always risk becoming ephemera, blown away by the movement of time once the election results are known.Written by two of South Africa's most highly respected journalists, this offering is well worth the read and deserves to avoid that fate.Granted, its scenarios are unexceptional, but they are well informed.Part One of the book provides an overview of the ANC's descent into a welter of corruption, from the moment of the notorious 1998 arms deal, through to its brutal exposure by the report of the Zondo Commission.Part Two