Future directions for deep ocean climate science and evidence-based decision making

Introduction A defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues across the reports, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view. Methods Here we seek to address this in the latest, sixth assessment report (AR6) for one such component—the deep ocean—by summarizing major uncertainties (based on discussions of low confidence issues or gaps) regarding its role in our changing climate system. The goal is to identify key research priorities to improve IPCC confidence levels in deep ocean systems and facilitate the dissemination of IPCC results regarding potentially high impact deep ocean processes to decision-makers. This will accelerate improvement of global climate projections and aid in informing efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. An analysis of 3,000 pages across the six selected AR6 reports revealed 219 major science gaps related to the deep ocean. These were categorized by climate stressor and nature of impacts. Results Half of these are biological science gaps, primarily surrounding our understanding of changes in ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and primary productivity. The remaining science gaps are related to uncertainties in the physical (32%) and biogeochemical (15%) ocean states and processes. Model deficiencies are the leading cited cause of low certainty in the physical ocean and ice states, whereas causes of biological uncertainties are most often attributed to limited studies and observations or conflicting results. Discussion Key areas for coordinated effort within the deep ocean observing and modeling community have emerged, which will improve confidence in the deep ocean state and its ongoing changes for the next assessment report. This list of key “known unknowns” includes meridional overturning circulation, ocean deoxygenation and acidification, primary production, food supply and the ocean carbon cycle, climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and fisheries, and ocean-based climate interventions. From these findings, we offer recommendations for AR7 to avoid omitting low confidence-high risk changes in the climate system.

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Publication Details

Journal
Frontiers in Climate
Published
2024-10-31
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1445694
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.00

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article

Future directions for deep ocean climate science and evidence-based decision making

Olivier Sulpis, Paris V. Stefanoudis, Leslie Smith, Charles Izuma Addey et al.
4 citations
Frontiers in Climate
Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
1.00
article

Future directions for deep ocean climate science and evidence-based decision making

Olivier Sulpis, Paris V. Stefanoudis, Leslie Smith, Charles Izuma Addey, David S. Trossman, Otmane Sarti, Daniel O. B. Jones, Paige J. Maroni, Mara Freilich, Xinfeng Liang, Elizabeth D. Hetherington, F Girard, Matthew J. Harke, Jonathan Maitland Lauderdale, Narissa Bax, Patrick Heimbach, Helen Pillar, Jesse van der Grient, Kristen Johannes, Elva Escobar‐Briones, Laura Cimoli, Siddhi Joshi, Laura G. Elsler, Natalya D. Gallo, Pavanee Annasawmy, Henri F. Drake, Lisa A. Levin, Sandra Antonio
article en
4 citations

Abstract

Introduction A defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues across the reports, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view. Methods Here we seek to address this in the latest, sixth assessment report (AR6) for one such component—the deep ocean—by summarizing major uncertainties (based on discussions of low confidence issues or gaps) regarding its role in our changing climate system. The goal is to identify key research priorities to improve IPCC confidence levels in deep ocean systems and facilitate the dissemination of IPCC results regarding potentially high impact deep ocean processes to decision-makers. This will accelerate improvement of global climate projections and aid in informing efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. An analysis of 3,000 pages across the six selected AR6 reports revealed 219 major science gaps related to the deep ocean. These were categorized by climate stressor and nature of impacts. Results Half of these are biological science gaps, primarily surrounding our understanding of changes in ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and primary productivity. The remaining science gaps are related to uncertainties in the physical (32%) and biogeochemical (15%) ocean states and processes. Model deficiencies are the leading cited cause of low certainty in the physical ocean and ice states, whereas causes of biological uncertainties are most often attributed to limited studies and observations or conflicting results. Discussion Key areas for coordinated effort within the deep ocean observing and modeling community have emerged, which will improve confidence in the deep ocean state and its ongoing changes for the next assessment report. This list of key “known unknowns” includes meridional overturning circulation, ocean deoxygenation and acidification, primary production, food supply and the ocean carbon cycle, climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and fisheries, and ocean-based climate interventions. From these findings, we offer recommendations for AR7 to avoid omitting low confidence-high risk changes in the climate system.

Frontiers in ClimateVol. 6
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Harvard University (US), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), University of San Diego (US), The University of Western Australia (AU), Collège de France (FR), National Oceanography Centre (GB), University of California, Irvine (US), Aix-Marseille Université (FR), Abdelmalek Essaâdi University (MA), University of Cambridge (GB), Brown University (US), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (NO), University of Oxford (GB), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute (FK), Centre de Recherche et d’Enseignement de Géosciences de l’Environnement (FR), Centre for Marine Socioecology (AU), OAI Consulting (United States) (US), Nekton (GB), Grønlands Naturinstitut (GL), Gloucester Marine Genomics Institute (US), Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (US), Fondation Pour la Recherche Sur la Biodiversité (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), University of Bergen (NO), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US), University of Maryland, College Park (US), University of Delaware (US), The University of Texas at Austin (US), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Sight Research UK, Nuclear Safety and Security Commission, Norges Forskningsråd, Natural Environment Research Council
Life below water, Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 26%
Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
1.00
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