Have configuration effects driven the coordinated enhancement of green energy system development in China and “Belt and Road” countries?–A qualitative comparative analysis based on panel data

Based on system theory and the configuration perspective, this study uses the panel data-based qualitative comparison (PD-QCA) method in R and the panel data of the energy systems of China and the ‘Belt and Road’ countries from 1998 to 2020 to analyze the driving factors that affect the green development of energy systems in various countries and the configuration effect on the vertical axis of time and its synergistic promotion path. The research results show that： (1) the driving factors for the green development of the energy systems in various countries are characterized by multiple synergies and the same goals. Factors such as the energy supply side, demand side and basic development level cannot be the necessary conditions for the green development of the energy structure alone, and it is necessary to give full play to the synergy among various factors; (2) in the sufficiency analysis, seven configuration paths are found for collaboratively driving the green development of the energy system, which can be further refined into energy supply-driven, supply-demand-driven, demand-technology-driven and supply-demand-technology-driven paths; (3) capital input, the labour supply level, government support, technological innovation and the environmental regulation level constitute the core driving factors of the green development of energy systems, and there is a potential substitution relationship between capital input and environmental regulation levels.；(4) In the temporal dimension, the Chow breakpoint test verified that the countries along the “Belt and Road Initiative” had a sense of green development to energy after 2013; in the spatial dimension, the implementation effects of each collaborative path showed obvious regional applicability differences. • The configuration effect of multiple factors constitutes a necessary condition for the green transformation of the energy system, and presents significant spatial and temporal effects. • Capital input, labor supply level, government support, technological innovation and environmental regulation level constitute the driving factors of green development of energy systems. • The chow tests of China and the countries along the ‘Belt and Road’ verified the green transformation trend of each country's energy system.