Distributional Consequences of Policies for Electric Heat Conversion

We study the adoption of air-source heat pumps for home heating. We estimate that 5% of already-built homes converted to heat pumps during 2010–20, while 22% of new homes built during this period chose heat pumps. New adoptions concentrate among rural households in the South. Conversions are more diffuse, covering urban and rural households in every region. Conversions are more prevalent in areas with mild winters and cheap electricity relative to other fuels but are less strongly associated with energy costs than adoptions in new homes. To better understand the distributional implications going forward, we calculate the annual energy-cost savings from switching to a heat pump for a large sample of US households based on their current heating fuels, climate, and local energy prices. We find massive variation, with low-income households in the Northeast and Appalachians benefiting the most.