Spatio-Temporal Variation in Pluvial Flash Flood Risk in the Lhasa River Basin, 1991–2020

The analysis of temporal and spatial variability in risk has garnered significant research attention, particularly regarding flash flood disasters in the context of warming and wetting conditions on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Focusing on the Lhasa River basin, this study develops a framework that integrates geographic information systems and a combined subjective–objective weighting approach to comprehensively assess flash flood risk despite limited observations. This paper investigates the distribution patterns of hazard, vulnerability, and the integrated risk of pluvial flash floods; demonstrates the reliability of the assessment results; and provides mitigation recommendations for disaster risk management at the county level. The results showed a trend in increasing flash flood risk in recent decades compared to the 1990s. Moreover, very-high- and high-risk areas were concentrated in downstream regions with frequent precipitation extremes and anthropogenic activity. From 1991 to 2020, the high to very high-risk areas gradually expanded from central Lhasa to neighbouring counties. This study contributes valuable insights into flash flood risk assessment cand mapping, which are crucial in terms of the protection of life and property in the plateau basin.