Statistical reliability estimation of space launch vehicles: 2000–2022

This research examines the reliability of space launch vehicles (SLVs) performing commercial, civil, and military space lift missions through trend analysis and a variety of statistical methods . Data sets obtained from the Seradata database are analyzed for trends by examining data subsets including launch date , sector (commercial, civil or military), launch country, intended mission orbit, SLV family, and failed subsystem. Evolving, time-dependent first-level Bayesian success rate analysis is performed to assess SLV reliability and performance trends on 1873 launches occurring during the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022. It was determined that even with a near-exponential increase in launch events in the 2020s, the number of failures is less than 6% each year, with the average success rate being 95% annually. Overall, 56% of launches were sent into low Earth orbit (LEO) and 32% were sent into geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) or geostationary Earth orbit (GSO). Although SLVs servicing missions to these orbital regimes featured success rates above 92%, LEO launches accounted for approximately 73% of total launch failures, while GEO-GSO launches accounted for 18% of failures. Specifically looking at U.S. and Russian SLV families, the main subsystem responsible for failure was propulsion, which accounted for 72.3% of 47 reported launch failures. First-level and second-level (using method of moments) Bayesian techniques were performed on 37 launch vehicle families and it was found that vehicles with a high accrual of launches performed with a higher reliability than vehicles with a low number of launches, resulting in first-level success rates of greater than 90%.