Prediction and Evaluation of Industrial Land Intensive Use: Adding Policy Impact to System Dynamics Model

Nowadays, urban development prioritizes improving quality over mere quantitative expansion, which requires a shift in land use from previous extensive use patterns to a more refined and efficient intensive use pattern. The intensive use of industrial land (IUIL) is a resource-utilization strategy for industrial land that aims at maximizing the dual growth of ecological and economic benefits by minimizing resource consumption and factor costs. In this research, IUIL is deconstructed into four aspects: input intensity, utilization intensity, economic benefits, and environmental benefits. Grounded in a qualitative analysis of the interconnected casual feedback among the various factors influencing IUIL, a system dynamics model with 36 indicators for IUIL evaluation and prediction is constructed. Policy impacts on IUIL from the supply side, utilization side, and supervision side are analyzed and embedded for a scenario simulation based on the theory of the entire life cycle of land use. The simulation shows its efficiency in reporting the variation tendency of industrial land use with varied policy impact strength. The results reveal a dynamic understanding of the evolving patterns of land intensification and present different characteristics of IUIL. This study further proposes policy recommendations to provide experience and references for the authorities to promote high-quality urbanization development in practice.