PREDICTING THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF Pinus cernua L.K. PHAN EX AVER., K.S. NGUYEN AND T.H. NGUYEN, A CRITICALLY ENDANGERED CONIFER SPECIES

Pinus cernua L.K. Phan ex Aver., K.S. Nguyen and T.H. Nguyen (Pinaceae) is a critically endangered species restricted to the Laos - Vietnam border. The population of this species has been declining due to habitat loss and forest fire. Predicting the potential distribution of the species is an important priority for conservation plans and strategies. In this study, a MaxEnt model was used for predicting the potential distribution of P. cernua using 21 occurrence data and 13 environmental variables. Precipitation of driest month (with 32.3% of contribution), annual mean diurnal range (23.4%), elevation (18.4%), and aspect (12.3%) are crucial factors for predicting the species’ potential distribution in the MaxEnt model, while remaining factors are less important factors. The suitable distribution was predicted in the north-western region of Vietnam and the adjacent regions of Son La and Thanh Hoa provinces (Vietnam) and Houaphan province (Laos) with 1,544 km2 in total. The high, medium, and low suitability areas are 159 km2 (10%), 475 km2 (31%), and 910 km2 (59%), respectively. The current protected areas do not contain many of the possible habitats for this species. Priority should be given to conservation efforts for species in these potentially suitable locations both in- and outside of current protected areas, particularly in the surrounding area of Vietnam and Laos.