Uncertainty-associated directional wave spectrum estimation from wave-induced ship responses using Machine Learning methods

This paper presents an assessment of three methods used for sea state estimation via the wave buoy analogy, where measured ship responses are processed. The three methods all rely on Machine Learning exclusively but they have different output; Method 1 provides bulk parameters, Method 2 yields a point wave spectrum and the wave direction, while Method 3 gives the directional wave spectrum in non-parametric form. The assessment is made using full-scale data from an in-service container ship in cross-Atlantic service. Training and testing of the methods are made using data from a wave radar, and the three methods perform well. An uncertainty measure, equivalently, a trust level indicator, based on the variation between the post-processed outputs of the methods is proposed, and this facilitates determination of estimates with small errors; without knowing the ground truth. • Machine learning applied in the wave buoy analogy. • Assessment with full-scale, in-service data using three methods. • Estimation of full directional wave spectrum. • Uncertainty measure giving a level of trust to the single estimate.