Spatio-Temporal Analysis to Inspect Infection Risk of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Central Java from 2015 to 2022

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a serious public health issue worldwide, including Central Java, Indonesia. Several analyses need to be conducted to serve as a reference for the government to take action to reduce the number of DHF cases. In this study, the data used was the quantity of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta provinces DHF cases from 2015 to 2022 due to the release of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in some areas in Yogyakarta province, and Central Java province as the surrounding area. The data was analyzed using spatial analysis with Moran’s I measure to see if the proximity between areas affects the number of DHF cases. The Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) method was used to see areas most at risk of dengue cases. Further, the Pearson correlation coefficient method was also utilized, to see which climate variables have an important influence on the number of DHF cases. This study found that the number of DHF cases in Central Java and DI Yogyakarta province did not have spatial dependence on regions within districts or cities in 2015-2022. However, for the analysis of cases only in DI Yogyakarta Province, there was spatial dependence between regions in districts/cities for the number of DHF cases in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022. In addition, by calculating the risk level of each district/city in the provinces of Central Java and DI Yogyakarta from 2015 to 2022, it was found that the most at-risk area was Magelang City, Central Java, with the SIR value is 15.611 in 2017. Among the three climatic variables (mean temperature, mean humidity, and total precipitation), the mean temperature and total precipitation significantly impacted the number of DHF cases, with p-values are 0.085 and 0.008, respectively.