BIOCLIMATIC MODELING OF THE SPECIES JURINEA SCHACHIMORDANICA (ASTERACEAE)

For more than 60 years, herbarium specimens of this species have not been recollected and targeted field studies have not been conducted. In 2023-2024, bioclimatic modeling was carried out on the basis of targeted field research in Shahimardan and the Kyrgyz Republic (Batkent; Okhna) region of the Fergana Valley. According to the RCP 2.6 (2061-2080) climate scenario, an increase in temperature of 0.4-1.6 °C will create many potentially suitable areas in the form of the regions of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. It is directly related to precipitation (Bio19) and elevation (Elv.) in the coldest quarter. Under the RCP8.5_2070s climate scenario, an increase in temperature of 1.4-2.6 °C has replaced scattered high-level suitable areas with medium-level suitable areas. Under both climate scenarios, temperature increases of 0.4–1.6 °C and 1.4–2.6 °C did not adversely affect the species' main hotspots.