Enhancing microgrid forecasting accuracy with SAQ-MTCLSTM: A self-adjusting quantized multi-task ConvLSTM for optimized solar power and load demand predictions

Accurate forecasting of solar power output and load demand is critical for the efficient operation and management of isolated microgrids, where reliability and sustainability are paramount. Traditional methods often struggle with data scarcity, limitations in capturing intricate temporal dynamics, and lack of scalability. This research introduces a novel multi-task learning (MTL) model, the Self-Aware Quantized Multi-Task ConvLSTM (SAQ-MTCLSTM), which addresses these challenges by jointly forecasting solar power and load demand while leveraging shared representations across these interdependent time series. The SAQ-MTCLSTM incorporates a sophisticated architecture that combines convolutional and LSTM layers with self-aware quantization to enhance computational efficiency and model adaptability. This allows for effective knowledge transfer, improved data utilization, and the capture of intricate temporal patterns. Evaluated on a real-world isolated microgrid dataset from the Micro Reseau Mafate research project, the model demonstrates significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, with MSE values of 0.0021 for solar power output and 0.0037 for load demand forecasting, compared to single-task and other advanced models. Extensive experiments highlight the impact of data scarcity, seasonality patterns, and microgrid topology on forecasting performance. Such forecasting is essential to optimize the integration and utilization of renewable resources, enhancing operational stability and reducing dependency on external energy supplies. • Introduced SAQ-MTCLSTM, a novel MTL model for solar power and load demand forecasting. • Combines ConvLSTM layers with self-aware quantization for efficiency and adaptability. • Achieved MSE values of 0.0021 for solar power and 0.0037 for load demand forecasting. • Demonstrated significant performance improvements over single-task and advanced models.