Nonparametric tests of treatment effect homogeneity for policy-makers
Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect heterogeneity. The tests can incorporate a variety of structured assumptions on the conditional average treatment effect, allow for both continuous and discrete covariates, and do not require sample splitting to obtain a tractable asymptotic null distribution. Furthermore, we show how the tests are tailored to detect alternatives where the population impact of adopting a personalized decision rule differs from using a rule that discards covariates. The proposal is thus relevant for guiding treatment policies. The utility of the proposal is borne out in simulation studies and a re-analysis of an AIDS clinical trial.
Authors
- Mats Julius Stensrud (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9641-1936)
- Oliver Dukes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9145-3325)
- Aaron Hudson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9731-2224)
- Riccardo Brioschi
Institutions
- HOGENT University of Applied Sciences and Arts (BE)
- Cape Town HVTN Immunology Laboratory / Hutchinson Centre Research Institute of South Africa (ZA)
- Ghent University (BE)
- Fred Hutch Cancer Center (US)
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (CH)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Published
- 2026-05-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2026.2670746
- Primary Topic
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Type
- preprint
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek