Utilizing cluster analysis of biomarkers alongside echocardiographic deformation parameters to forecast the outcome of atrial fibrillation post-ablation

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) management often involves catheter ablation, but its recurrence necessitates careful clinical management and potential adjustments in medication or further ablation procedures. This study aims to investigate the predictive value of biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters for early AF recurrence. Methods In the prospective study, we enrolled patients with symptomatic paroxysmal or persistent atrial fibrillation undergoing catheter ablation. Pulmonary vein isolation was performed in every index procedure, with additional ablation or substrate modification as per physician preference. Blood samples were collected from both the atrium and peripheral vein to assess levels of tumor endothelial marker 1 (TEM1), galectin 3, connective tissue growth factor (CTGF), transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β), C-terminal propeptide of procollagen type I (PICP), and Smad3. Pre-procedural echocardiographic parameters, including the E/e’ ratio, peak atrial longitudinal strain (PALS), and peak atrial contractile strain (PACS), were recorded. Clustering models with sparse canonical association analysis (CCA) were employed to develop predictive models integrating biomarker and echocardiographic data for early atrial fibrillation recurrence. Results Out of 80 prospectively enrolled patients, 68 completed the study, with six cases of early atrial fibrillation recurrence observed. Following dimension reduction and clustering, we found that the combined use of biomarkers and echocardiography significantly predicted atrial fibrillation recurrence (HR: 9.44, p=0.05, 95% CI: 1.0-88.9). Notably, among these parameters, TEM1 biomarker sampled from the peripheral vein (p=0.02), left atrium dimension (p=0.07), and left ventricle dimension (p=0.02) exhibited the most significant predictive power. Conclusions Our study highlights the effectiveness of integrating biomarkers and echocardiography parameters in predicting early recurrence of atrial fibrillation post-ablation in patients undergoing catheter ablation.main_figure